Research

Working Papers

[1] The Importance of Commodity-Price Shocks (Job Market Paper)
Date: November 2024
Short Abstract:
This paper examines the role of commodity import and export price shocks in driving business cycles in 28 EMDEs, showing that an SVAR attributes roughly 26–30 percent of fluctuations to these shocks, whereas a calibrated 5-sector RBC model predicts only 2–3 percent.

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Work in Progress

[2] Impulse Responses by Pseudo-Panel Local Projections: An R Package
Date: November 2024
Short Abstract:
This paper attempts to develop an R package that generalizes and extends the strategy in Berg, Curtis, and Mark (2023) for shrinking impulse‐response standard errors in local projections. By doing so, it avoids the strong homogeneity restrictions imposed by traditional panel regressions.

[3] Commodity Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union of Developing Countries
Date: November, 2024
Short Abstract:
This project examines optimal monetary policy responses to commodity terms‐of‐trade shocks in commodity‐dependent low‐income countries within monetary unions (e.g., WAEMU and CEMAC) that do not have freely floating exchange rates.

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Policy Papers

[4] The Echoes of Conflict: Analyzing the Potential Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Africa (Unpublished) with Daniel Gurara, Dianah Ngui, and Abebe Shimeles
Date: October 2023
Short Abstract:
Using a global VAR, this paper analyzes how war-driven spikes in food, oil, and fertilizer prices affect commodity terms of trade, inflation, output, and real exchange rates in 44 African countries, predicting prolonged adverse impacts and highlighting Africa’s vulnerability to global shocks and its need for greater self-sufficiency.

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